按风险率模型分析的设计雨型  

Establishment of design hyetographs based on risk probability models

作　　者：杨星 朱大栋 李朝方 刘志龙 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利科学研究院,江苏南京210017 [2]深圳市水务规划设计院,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《水利学报》2013年第5期542-548,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：水利部公益性项目(201001070);深圳市水务发展中长期战略研究项目(SZCG2010021725)

摘　　要：设计雨型是暴雨洪水分析不可或缺的基本要素,为此,本文建立了雨型分析的风险率模型,探讨了考虑风险率模式下的雨型设计方法,并以此方法分析了深圳市深圳雨量站1969—2002年实测逐时降雨资料,获得了深圳市不同重现期下的设计雨型,并与深圳市目前主要的几种设计雨型进行了比较。结果显示:(1)典型暴雨同倍比放大法和模糊聚类分析方法都存在风险率设计不足的问题;(2)SCS-Ⅱ法则因为安全度过高不适合深圳地区使用;(3)典型暴雨同频率放大法设计雨型与风险率分析法相似,但雨峰设计存在差异;(4)风险率分析方法对设计雨型的分析具有科学合理的指导意义,可以作为一种雨型的设计方法。Design hyetograph is the essential element for storm flood calculation. To get a more reasonable design hyetograph, this paper presents a risk probability model for calculating the design hyetograph. As a case study using the hourly rainfall data in Shenzhen from 1969 to 2002, the design hyetographs of differ-ent return period were analyzed based on the risk probability models and compared them with the tradition- al methods. The main achievements are summarized as follows： （1） The results show that there are risk problems for the design hyetograph enlarging method by the same multiple and fuzzy cluster analysis meth-od used in Shenzhen; （2） SCS-Ⅱ method used for calculation of design hyetograph is not fit for use in Shenzhen because of too high security; （3）The design hyetograph enlarging method by the same frequency and risk probability analysis method （RADH） have similar rainfall structure, but the differences certainly exist in rainfall peak design; （4）The RADH method is reasonable and will provide reference for the compu-tation of design hyetograph.

关 键 词：设计雨型 重现期 风险率 SCS方法 模糊聚类分析方法 同倍比放大法 同频率放大法 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]