改进的灰色增量模型及其在哈市人口预测中的应用  

The Improved Grey Increment Model and Its Applications on Population Prediction of Harbin

作　　者：石端银[1] 李文宇[1] 蔡吉花[1] 董志超[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江科技学院理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150027

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第10期71-76,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(12523046);黑龙江省自然科学基金(A201015)

摘　　要：人口预测是土地利用总体规划修编需要解决的重要问题.根据1991-2011年哈尔滨市人口发展的最新统计资料,建立了带有弱化算子的灰色增量模型,对2012-2030年哈市人口发展趋势进行预测研究,预测2030年哈市人口达到1111.81万人,且总人口增长率呈逐年下降的趋势.此外,通过与普通灰色增量模型进行了对比,反映了带有弱化算子的灰色增量模型预测更精确,更有益于区域土地利用总体规划的制定.The population prediction is an important problem which needs to be solved in land use planning. According to the latest statistical data of Harbin＇s population devel- opment from 1991 to 2011, the grey increment model with the weakening operator is to be established. Based on this model, the prediction of Harbin＇s population will reach 11.1181 million by 2030, and the rate of its growth shows a downward trend year by year. Com- pared with other models, the improved grey increment model＇s prediction is more accurate. Therefore it will benefit regional land-use general planning more.

关 键 词：灰色增量模型 弱化算子 人口预测 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F224