气候变暖对华北冬小麦种植界限及生育期的影响  

Effects of Climate Warming on the Planting Boundary and Developmental Stages of Winter Wheat

作　　者：李祎君[1] 梁宏[2] 王培娟[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《麦类作物学报》2013年第2期382-388,共7页Journal of Triticeae Crops

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951304);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2010Y004);国家自然科学基金项目(40901170)

摘　　要：为了揭示冬小麦的物候变化态势及其对气候变化的响应程度,以气温的空间变化替代其时间变化,分析了不同升温幅度对华北冬小麦生育期,尤其是对升温较为明显的秋冬季生育期的影响。结果表明,随着气候变暖,冬小麦冬前生育期呈推迟趋势,而越冬之后各生育期呈提早趋势,越冬期缩短。当气温升高1℃时,冬小麦播种时间将推迟4d左右,越冬开始时间由11月底推迟到12月中旬,返青时间由3月初提前到2月中旬,越冬开始至返青的间隔时间将缩短40d左右;当气温升高1.5℃时,播种时间将推迟10d左右,越冬时间将由11月底推迟到12月底,个别暖冬年份将推迟至第二年1月初,返青时间提前至2月上中旬,越冬开始至返青的间隔时间将缩短50d左右;若气温继续上升,越冬开始至返青的间隔时间可能仍会持续地缩短,但缩短的幅度将可能减小。Base on climate warming,the average air temperature of North China becomes warmer and warmer,at the same time,the main producing areas for winter wheat is changing.Research on the impact of climate warming of North China on winter wheat growth is realistic significance.Temperature changes in future had been varied by variations of latitude,the effect of different amplitude in elevated temperature on winter wheat growth were analyzed.In the study,a significant correlation between winter wheat sowing time and average temperature was observed that as the temperature increased by 1℃,the sowing date would be delayed for about 4 days,as the temperatures increased by 1.5℃,sowing time would be delayed for about 10 days.With climate warming,the duration of overwinter time of winter wheat would be shortened： when the temperature increase by 1℃,the overwinter time changed from November to late December,while the temperature increased by 1.5℃,the overwinter time would be delayed to the end of November to January of the next year.As temperatures increased,the time of turning green had been found in ahead of schedule,when temperature increased by 1℃,the duration of winter wheat during winter time would be shortened to 40 days;when temperature increased by 1.5℃,the duration of winter time would be shortened to 50 days.If the air temperatures continued to rise,wintering time might still continue to be shortened,and the shortening of amplitude would be reduced.

关 键 词：冬小麦 气候变暖 种植界限 生育期 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S314