1950～2010年中国干旱灾情频率-规模关系分析  

Relationship Between Frequency and Magnitude of Drought Damage in China in 1950-2010

作　　者：邱海军[1] 曹明明[1] 郝俊卿[2] 王雁林[3] 王彦民[4] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学城市与环境学院,陕西西安710127 [2]西安财经学院商学院,陕西西安710061 [3]长安大学建筑工程学院,陕西西安710054 [4]陕西理工学院化学与环境科学学院,陕西汉中723000

出　　处：《地理科学》2013年第5期576-580,共5页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：陕西省"13115"科技创新工程重大科技专项项目(2008ZDKG-75);陕西省社会科学界2012年度重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2012Z029);西北大学科研启动基金(PR12076);西北大学科学研究基金(12NW32)资助

摘　　要：借鉴相关领域研究概念，对1950~2010年中国干旱灾情的变化动态，特别是频率与规模的关系做定量分析，划分风险的可接受与不可接受区。研究结果发现：①总体上，60a来干旱灾害中受灾、成灾面积和粮食损失在逐年不断的增加。②干旱灾害中粮食损失与累积频率的关系与著名的古登堡一里查德关系类似，呈现良好的幂律性。而受灾、成灾面积与累积频率的关系则符合线性关系。⑨通过借鉴地质灾害领域相关可接受风险概念，划定干旱灾害中年粮食损失、受灾和成灾面积的可接受与不可接受灾情的界线。④借鉴相关领域研究概念，尝试对干旱灾害进行探索，因此，在将来的研究中还有待继续和深化。Drought is a disaster which occurs in the broadest area most frequently and has the most severe impact among natural disasters. It was very popular in other disaster research especially in earthquake and geologic disaster field to study the relationship between frequency and magnitude. This article could get quantitative results about the occurrence frequency on a certain scale and the risk assessment （risk acceptable or unacceptable） of the disaster. This article aims to build the relationship between frequency and magnitude of droughts on the basis of analyzing the droughts change in China in 1950-2000 and accordingly divide the risky area to risk acceptable and unacceptable area. The main results included： 1） In general, grain lost, affected and dam- aged area of farmland increased during the past 60 years. The annual grain lost, affected area and damaged area were 161.18×10^8kg, 21 599.54×10^3ha and 9 613.41× 10^3ha, respectively. The increase rates of the grain lost, affected and damaged area were 5.39×10^8kg/a, 219.66×10^3ha/a and 178.82×10^3ha/a, respectively. 2） Similar to famous Gutenberg-Richard relationship, relationship between cumulative frequency and grain lost showed a good power-law relation. The formula was： LnN（〉G）=4.26-0.006G（R：=0.996, P〈0.05）. Cumulative frequency with damaged and affected area showed good linear relation. The formulas were： N（〉DA）=65.869-0.001DA（R2= 0.971, P〈0.05）, N（〉IA）=62.105-0.003 IA（R^2=O.992,P〈O.05）, respectively. 3） The principle “Acceptable level of risk is inversely proportional to the damaging effect” is a common principle during the risk control process in engineering. When the principle was used to divide the acceptable level of risk of life loss, F（frequency）-N （number of casualty） rule was appropriate. As a result, the boundary between acceptable and unacceptable risk on annual grain lost, affected and damaged area was drawn. More work need undergoing.

关 键 词：干旱灾情 频率规模 可接受风险 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]