基于CGE模型的水价变动对国民经济各部门价格的影响  

Effect of variation of water price on prices of various sectors of national economy based on CGE model

作　　者：刘婷婷[1] 张玲玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利经济》2013年第3期40-43,53,共5页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51109055;51279223);江苏省社会科学基金重点项目(11GLA001);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201022)

摘　　要：针对目前我国水价改革现状,依据我国2007年投入产出表以及统计年鉴编制了社会核算矩阵表,将水资源作为生产要素,改进CGE模型中生产模块,分析水价改革对国民经济各部门价格以及总产出的影响。通过提高水的生产和供应部门的价格来模拟水价的变化,利用GAMS工具作为建模和求解平台,具体模拟了水价提高10%和15%两种情景。结果显示:水价提高对国民经济部门价格有一定影响,通过适当提高水价,可以有效地促进高耗水行业节约用水。In view of the present situation of water price reform in China,a social accounting matrix is compiled according to China' s 2007 input-output tables and statistical yearbook.The water resources are regarded as the production factors.The production module of CGE model is improved.The effects of water price reform on the prices of various sectors of the national economy and the total output are analyzed.The variation of water price is simulated by increasing the prices of water production sector and water supply department.Based on the GAMS tool,two situations of the water price with the increase of 10% and 15% are investigated.The simulated results show that the increase of the water price has certain influence on the prices of various sectors of the national economy.Appropriate increase of the water price may effectively make the sectors with high water consumption save water.

关 键 词：水价变动 国民经济 社会核算矩阵 CGE模型 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]