基于对经济增长滞后影响的山东省科技投入及其结构演变分析  

Research on Science & Technology Input and its Structure Considering the Lagged Effect on Economic Growth of Shandong Province

作　　者：姜秀娟[1] 侯贵生[1] 肖鲁运[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经管学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2013年第10期56-60,共5页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：山东省软科学项目"山东省科技投入及其结构演变与经济增长的灰色关联关系研究"(2011RKGB2023)

摘　　要：科技投入能促进经济增长,这种增长既可能体现在当期也可能会有滞后。根据山东省2000年～2010年间的统计数据,基于科技投入对经济增长的滞后影响,运用T型关联度及特化系数对科技投入与经济增长间关系进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)科技经费投入与人力投入与经济增长均有正关联关系,但经费投入对经济增长的当期促进作用最大,而科技人员投入的促进作用较弱;R&D经费投入对经济增长的长期促进作用较为显著,科技人员投入的长期促进作用处于中等水平,科技人员中的科学家和工程师的长期促进作用不明显。(2)新世纪以来,山东省科技经费来源结构一直是企业主体型且企业资金特化水平逐年增强,其在科技进步与经济增长中发挥了主体作用。山东省R&D投入强度一直低于全国平均水平,R&D活动中的基础研究阶段需加大投入力度。According to real - time data of Shandong province over 11 years, the paper makes use of grey relation degree and location quotient to examine the promotion of science ＆ technology input on economic growth considering the lagged effect of science ＆ technology input on economic growth. The results show that, in short term, expenditure input has signif- icant positive relationship with economic growth, while human resource input has weak positive promotion on economic growth. In the long term, expenditure on R＆D activities has strong promotion on economic growth, but scientists and engi- neers have no significant effect on economic growth. Furtherly, the paper finds that expenditure input in science and tech- nology mainly comes from enterprises. And the enterprises have played an important role in facilitating ecnonomic growth of Shandong province. The percentage of R＆D expenditure in GDP in Shandong has been lower than the national average for years, and Shandong should increase the input in basic research in R＆D activities in order to enhance the development in the future.

关 键 词：科学学与科技管理 科技投入 灰色关联分析 经济增长 滞后影响 结构演变 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F127F224