企业突破性技术创新投资决策的泊松分布研究  

Analysis of the Investment Decisions for Radical Technology Innovation in Ventures Based on Poisson Distribution

作　　者：刘卫柏[1,2] 游达明[1] 李中[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院 [2]邵阳学院经管系

出　　处：《管理学报》2013年第6期862-867,共6页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助创新群体项目(70921001/G0104);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172100);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(12YJC790203)

摘　　要：以项目收益与投入成本的比率R的演化过程来指代企业项目投资的特征,引入泊松分布分析企业突破性技术创新的变化过程,以此建构企业突破性技术创新的实物期权模型。研究表明,在企业突破性技术创新项目投资决策中,实现突破性技术创新引起的项目价值跳跃及实现的频率是影响企业投资决策的2个重大因素。突破性技术创新可以破解企业发展的瓶颈,进而达成良性循环的可持续发展路径。Based on the characteristics of project investment which is evolved from the ratio R, the project income to the input costs, and the introduction of the Poisson Distribution to analyze its chan- ging process, this paper tries to construct the option model of radical technology innovation. The re- search has shown that in the decision--making of investment for the project of radical technology in- novation in ventures, to achieve the jump of the project value caused by the radical technology innova- tion and its frequency are two major factors that affect investment decisions of ventures. The break- through of technological innovation can break the bottle--neck of the development of enterprises, thus achieving a virtuous cycle of sustainable development path.

关 键 词：泊松分布 突破性技术创新 投资决策 期权 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] F270