中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析  

Comparative Analysis on the Relationship between Population Age Structure and Household Consumption in China

作　　者：毛中根[1] 孙武福[2] 洪涛[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学消费经济研究所教授 [2]西南财经大学消费经济研究所硕士,四川成都610074 [3]哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院副教授

出　　处：《人口研究》2013年第3期82-92,共11页Population Research

基　　金：霍英东教育基金会项目(131085);国家自然科学基金(71103051);国家社科基金项目(08CJL007);教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目(NCET-12-0927)资助

摘　　要：老龄化对老龄人口自身消费将产生影响;老龄化通过影响储蓄率、劳动供给、劳动生产率、经济增长将间接作用于消费需求。实证分析表明:收入对居民消费支出的影响显著,收入越低的地方边际消费倾向越大;老年抚养比的提高是导致居民消费降低的一个重要原因。城乡比较显示:人口老龄化的提高显著降低了城市居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响不显著;少儿抚养比的提高显著增加了城乡居民的消费支出;老年负担率的提高显著降低了城镇居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响比较微弱。东中西部地区比较表明:人口老龄化对居民消费的影响由大到小依次是东部、中部、西部;少儿抚养比对居民消费的影响由大到小为中部、西部、东部;老年负担率对居民消费的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部。The aging of population has impacts on the consumption of the aged population. By af- fecting the savings rate, labor supply, labor productivity, economic growth, aging will be indirectly in- fluencing consumer demand. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of income on household con- sumption is significant, that is the lower the income, the greater the propensity of marginal consump- tion; the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is an important factor in reducing household con- sumption. A comparison of urban and rural areas shows that population aging significantly reduces consumption expenditure of urban residents while the effect for rural residents is not significant; rising child dependency ratio significantly increases consumption expenditure of both urban and rural resi- dents. A comparison of eastern, central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of population aging on household consumption is east, central and west areas; the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption is central, west and east areas; while the descending order of the effect of elderly dependency ratio on household consumption is east, central and west areas in China.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 少儿抚养比 老年抚养比 居民消费 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F124.7