我国农村居民的生育意愿和生育行为：以湖南省拆迁户为例  

An Empirical Study of Fertility Intentions and Fertility Behaviors of Rural Residents: The Case of Relocated Households in Hunan Province

作　　者：卿树涛[1,2] 彭振国[3] 许尚锋 张友良[1] 李志芳[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省委党校经济学部 [2]西南财经大学经济学院 [3]湖南省人口计生委 [4]湖南省人口计生委财务处

出　　处：《人口研究》2013年第3期102-112,共11页Population Research

摘　　要：文章利用实际调查获取的数据,采用嵌入式logit模型,估计了拆迁补偿和集体经济分配对拆迁户生育意愿以及实际生育水平的影响。研究结果表明:在控制住年龄、工资和经营收入以及教育水平等相关变量之后,集体经济分配对实际生育水平以及因生育偏好导致的生育行为呈显著的负相关关系;拆迁补偿与生育二胎无显著的关系,但与生育三胎呈显著的正相关关系,与因性别偏好导致的额外生育一胎无显著关系,与二胎呈显著的正相关,使用嵌入式logit模型的估计结果,对未来因性别偏好导致的额外生育子女数进行了预测,发现未来10年后,湖南农村"少子化"趋势将逐步明晰。Drawing up a recent survey data,this paper examines impact on fertility intentions and fertility behaviors of the compensation for demolition and bonus of collective economy in Hunan Province.The empirical results demonstrate that,when controlling for age,education,wage and operating income,the bonus of collective economy has significant negative influence on fertility level and fertility desire resulting from gender preference;the compensation for demolition has little influence on the second birth but has significant positive influence on the third birth,and has little influence on the first extra birth but significant positive influence on the second extra birth resulting from gender preference.When using the regression estimation results of nlogit model to forecast the extra births resulting from gender preference,an intensifying tendency of fewer-children in families in Hunan Province would be presented in the next decade.

关 键 词：拆迁补偿 集体经济分配 生育水平 性别偏好 生育意愿 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]