对外贸易对中国产业结构向服务化演进的影响——基于制造-服务国际分工形态的视角  

On the Effect of Foreign Trade on the Evolution of Industrial Structure towards Tertiarization in China:From the Perspective of International Manufacturing-service Division of Labor

作　　者：张捷[1] 张媛媛[1] 莫扬[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《财经研究》2013年第6期16-27,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目<后危机时代全球分工发展趋势及其对我国经济发展的影响>(09AZD015);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大攻关项目<中国现代产业体系研究>(08JZD0014)

摘　　要：文章从"制造-服务"国际分工的视角探讨了导致中国产业结构演进迟滞需求方面的原因,提出了以下理论假说:在制造-服务国际分工形态下,出口贸易的过度发展将导致对服务业的挤出效应大于其收入效应和关联效应,使产业结构落入"低水平过度制造业化"的陷阱。文章采用联立方程模型提取各经济变量的独立影响,为上述假说提供了经验证据。文章研究表明,中国出口导向型发展模式虽然有利于加快工业化进程,但可能抑制产业结构向服务化的演进。全球金融危机以后,中国有必要转变发展模式以促进经济结构转型升级。This paper explores demand-based reasons for the stagnant e- volution of industrial structure in China from the perspective of international manufacturing-service division of labor and proposes the hypothesis that over -development of export trade will lead to greater crowding-out effect on serv- ice sector than its income effect and correlative effect in consideration of in- ternational manufacturing-service division of labor, thereby catching indus- trial structure in the trap of over-industrialization at a low level. It employs a simultaneous equation model to extract the independent effects of each eco- nomic variable and provides some empirical evidence for the hypothesis above -mentioned. It concludes that, although export-led development pattern in China has accelerated the process of industrialization, it will probably inhibit the transformation of industrial structure from industrialization to tertiariza- tion. After the international financial crisis, it is necessary for China to change its development pattern in order to promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure.

关 键 词：国际贸易 产业结构 恩格尔定理 服务化 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F740