玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特以上流域近55年降水量变化特性分析  

Precipitation change characteristics in Manas River Basin reaches above Kensiwate in the past 55 years

作　　者：王薇[1,2] 陈伏龙[1,2] 何新林[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,石河子832003 [2]现代节水灌溉兵团重点实验室,石河子832003

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2013年第5期163-168,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2010CB951004);国家自然科学基金项目(51069011)资助

摘　　要：根据玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站1956～2010年逐月观测的降水资料,运用线性回归,5年滑动平均,累计距平,Mann-Kendall以及EMD的分析方法,分析了玛纳斯河流域降水量的年内、年际、年代际变化特征。结果表明:近55年来,玛纳斯河流域降水量年内分配不均匀,主要集中在4～8月份,占年降水量的70.19%;年际变化大,总趋势以4.42mm/10a的变化率增加,但该趋势在0.05水平上不显著,降水变化具有明显的阶段性;年降水量变化存在准6～8年、准10～14年、准23～26年、准52年的波动周期。Based on the monthly precipitation data of Manas River Basin in 1956 -2010years, five - year moving average, cumulative departure, Mann - Kendall and Empirical Mode Decomposition methods were adopted to analyze the inter - annual, annual, decade and periodic variation characteristics of the Manas River Basin for the last 55 years. The results show that distribution of annual precipitation was uneven, and it mainly focused on April to August, accounting for 70.19% of the annual precipitation; The inter - annual variations were great, there was a increasing trend of 4.42mm/10a but not significantly （ p 〉 0.05 ）. , annual precipitation changes had certain stages; and annual precipitation changes had a main period of about 6 ~ 8 years , 10 - 14 years, 23 - 26years and 52 years.

关 键 词：降水量 滑动平均 EMD经验模态分解 玛纳斯河流域 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]