产业增长、货币供给冲击与结构调整  

Industrial Growth,Monetary Supply Shock and Industrial Reconstructuring

作　　者：刘金全[1] 刘汉[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第6期1-11,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"‘十二五’期间我国经济周期波动态势与宏观经济调控模式研究"(10&ZD006);国家自然科学基金一般项目"非线性随机波动模型估计方法及应用研究"(70971055)

摘　　要：货币供给调整能够影响产业增长及其结构调整,因此,可以根据货币供给冲击的方向、区制以及所调整产业的增长阶段,进行合理、有效的货币政策调控。本文分析和检验三大产业在不同增长阶段对货币供给冲击方向、区制的脉冲响应和非对称性,并进一步解析产业结构演变与货币供给冲击的关联性。实证结果表明,货币政策活跃区制和紧缩性货币政策均能直接影响产业结构演变对货币供给冲击的响应,而各产业自身增长区制仅能起到间接影响。Industrial restructuring has been plagued China＇s economy in recent years. The world＇s economic de- velopment experience has shown that the successfully and quickly industrial structure transformation is one of the most important conditions for China to step into high - income countries from middle - income country. Therefore, transition countries all over the world, including China, try their best to adjust the layout of the industrial structure, optimize the industrial structure, and improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth, to maintain a sus- tained, rapid and healthy economic growth. Monetary policies adjust the industrial growth and industrial structure by regulates the sources and composition of each industry funds, and then arranges the formation of assets and pro- duction capacity in industrial structure. Empirical results in China show that the monetary contractions reduce out- put by more than monetary expansions raise it. Is the effect of monetary policy consistent with previous findings, when we focus output on the industry level？ In our paper, we investigate three specific relationships between the monetary supply shocks and industrial growth base on the directions of monetary supply shocks, the regimes of monetary supply shocks and industrial growth. First, we focus on the effect of positive and negative money supply on industrial growth and test the asymmetric effect. The empirical results show that negative money supply has more significant and sensitive effect on industrial growth than positive money supply, while the size of the effect is different between three industries, the response of secondary industry is strongest, followed by the tertiary industry, and the minimum is the primary industry. The asymmetric tests do not support the existence of the asymmetry effect of money supply shock on industry growth. Second, we investigate the relationship between （in）active money supply shocks and industrial growth. The active regime of money supply shocks were shown t

关 键 词：货币供给 产业增长 结构调整 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]