对我国社会养老保险个人账户模式选择的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis on Individual Account Model Selection for Chinese Social Pension

作　　者：王晓军[1] 米海杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第6期164-174,共11页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"我国养老金体系政府担保风险研究"(10JJD790037);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"我国社会保障核算;精算;预算整合模型研究与应用"(10YJA910008);国家自然科学基金项目"社会保障预算管理研究"(71173230)

摘　　要：本文对有关社会养老保险个人账户"做实账户"与"名义账户"的观点和经验做了总结评述,分析了我国现行社会养老保险个人账户的特点,通过构建精算模型,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法和风险分析方法,对比分析了养老保险个人账户采取基金积累制、名义账户制和保持现行制度不变三种情况下的成本、待遇、回报和风险等。结论表明,名义账户制比另外两种选择在收入分配、成本收益和风险分担方面都有明显的优势。由此建议我国当前的"统账结合"社会养老保险的个人账户部分可以明确采取名义账户制,将精算公平原则和保险功能引入现行个人账户,并独立管理,为实现养老保险的财务可持续发展做出贡献。Social Insurance Law enacted in 2011 establishes the social pension mode combining social pooling with individual account. However, whether the individual account takes the form of Pay-As-You-Go or fully funded is not identified. In practice, funding the individual account is proceeding. Meanwhile, many pilots attempting to ＂fully fund＂ the individual account are facing serious pension deficit. Thus, huge financial subsidies are necessary. On one hand, due to unsuitable investment channel, the individual account fund may in fact suffer from devaluation. On the other hand, huge financial subsidies or loan with higher interest rate than credited is needed to compensate the defi- cit. So in this circumstance, the payment risk is transferred to next generations. Therefore, someone appeal to cease ＂fully fund＂ the individual account. On the contrary, someone emphasize the danger of ＂empty account＂. Then the dispute that which kind of funding pattern of the individual account should choose arises. Regarding individual account of social pension, this paper summarizes the viewpoints and worldwide experience on FDC and NDC, analyzes the features of current individual account in China. The comparison results are ： （ 1 ） FDC has the function of accounting, actuarial fairness, insurance and accumulation. （2） NDC is characteristic of the func- tion of accounting, actuarial fairness and insurance. （3）The individual account in China only keeps the function of accounting. Not only is it not supported by financial asset, it does not display the feature of actuarial fairness and in- surance. Based on actuarial models ,Monte Carlo Simulation and Risk Analysis Method, combined with 1993-2011 data on one-year deposit rate, weighted bond yield and market rate, the cost, benefit, return and risk under FDC, NDC and current system are compared respectively. The indicators used to measure the above aspects of pension system are as follows. Replacement Rate（ RR）that equals the ratio of pension at retireme

关 键 词：养老保险 个人账户 精算模型 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]