甘肃临夏高寒区油菜种植气候区划与产量预测气候模型  

Climatic regionalization and yield prediction models of rapeseed (Brassica napus) in Linxia high-cold region of Gansu province

作　　者：孙玉莲[1,2] 边学军 黄成秀 贾小琴 马旭杰 蔡广珍 王琨 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所、甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室和中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃省临夏州气象局,甘肃临夏731100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2013年第2期47-51,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：甘肃省自然科学基金项目(0803RJZA092);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201111)

摘　　要：采用数理统计方法,分析了临夏地区油菜气候生态条件以及气候条件对油菜产量及其构成因素的影响。结果表明:影响该地区油菜生长发育的主要气候要素为降水、气温和日照;根据高寒地区油菜生长季节对不同气候要素的依赖程度,对高寒地区油菜种植进行气候区划,并根据气候区划分析了双低油菜不同生长阶段所需气候条件;把双低油菜从播种到成熟划分为五个生育期,建立各生育期动态气候预测模式,实现了双低油菜产量气象预测。With the mathematical statistic methods,the climatic ecological conditions and their the influences to yield and yield components of rapeseed（Brassica napus） in Linxia region was analyzed.The results showed that the precipitation,temperature and sunshine were the main climatic factors affecting the growth of rapeseed in this region.The climatic regionalization of rapeseed planting was conducted according to the climatic factors during the growing season of rapeseed in the high-cold region,and the requirements of double low rapeseed varieties to climatic conditions at the different growth stages were analyzed.Moreover,the dynamic climatic prediction models for all of the 5 growth stages from sowing to mature were established,so as to predict the yield of double low rapeseed according to meteorological conditions.

关 键 词：油菜 气候条件 产量 预测模式 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]