中国资产短缺影响因素研究——理论及经验证据  

On the Influencing Factors of Assets Shortage in China:Theoretical and Empirical Evidence

作　　者：范从来[1] 刘绍保[1] 刘德溯[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《金融研究》2013年第5期73-85,共13页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"居民收入来源结构优化研究"(批准号:11AJL003)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于"C-I指数"(Chen和Imam,2011)以及笔者对其各指标统计口径的具体设定对中国资产短缺状况进行测算并分析其影响因素。研究表明,经济的持续快速增长和金融发展的严重滞后是造成当前中国面临资产短缺困扰的最重要因素;负向外生冲击虽可以缓解中国所面临的资产短缺压力,但这主要源于大量避险资金暂时退出高风险投资领域,国内资产短缺状况并未因此发生根本性改变。进一步研究发现,长期内,实际利率下降利于缓解国内资产短缺压力,但要想从根本上解决中国的资产短缺问题,关键还得依靠金融大发展来增加"本国对内优质金融资产创造"。This paper estimates the extent of assets shortage in China and empirically analyzes the influencing factors of the assets shortage based on the ＂C -I index＂ （Chen and Imam, 2011 ） and the specific set which the authors make for some statistic indicators. The study indicates that sustained ＆ rapid economic growth and seriously - lagging - behind financial development are the most important factors that cause Chinese assets short- age ; although adverse exogenous shocks can ease the domestic assets shortage pressure, this only means that the large number of hedge funds exits temporarily from the field of high - risk investment; and actually the extent of Chinese assets shortage has not been changed fundamentally. Further study shows that although the lower real interest rate will help alleviate the pressure of domestic assets shortage, however, if expecting to fundamentally solve Chinese assets shortage, this is still the key to supply more domestic high - quality financial assets to domestic investors by continuing to promote vigorously financial development in the long term.

关 键 词：经济增长 资产短缺 金融发展 实际利率 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F224