冀东冬小麦降水适宜度变化及保证率风险分析  

Analysis on the Precipitation Suitability Trend and Cumulative Frequency of Winter Wheat in East Hebei Province

作　　者：高桂芹[1] 郑秉浩 侯书勋 董玉武[2] 王秀玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]唐山市气象局,河北唐山063000 [2]唐山市农业科学研究院,河北唐山063001

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2013年第15期21-25,共5页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

摘　　要：为了更好地了解冬小麦生长期间,自然降水对其生长所需水分的满足程度,以利指导农业生产,利用降水适宜度模型、气候保证率的求算方法,对唐山地区1981—2010年冬小麦几个关键发育期期间的历年降水适宜度进行了计算,并对其进行保证率风险分析。结果表明,唐山地区冬小麦各需水关键发育期的降水适宜度各地区之间无明显差异,但年际间变化较大,返青—拔节期降水适宜度在0.05～1.00之间变化,拔节—抽穗期在0.03～0.99之间变化,灌浆期在0.04～0.88之间变化,其变异系数分别为0.79、0.72、0.65。冬小麦降水适宜度的变化趋势不显著,其10年变化速率仅0.002。冬小麦各需水关键发育期的降水适宜度在0.8以下的保证率为83%～87%,降水不能满足冬小麦生长所需,种植风险较大。降水条件是小麦生产的限制因素。In order to determine the satisfication degree of the precipitation during the growing period of winter wheat, the author made use of the model about climatic suitability and calculation of cumulative frequency, according to the daily precipitation data in the period form 1980 to 2010 in Tangshan. The winter wheat precipitation suitability degree and its spatial-temporal distribution, cumulative frequency in each key development period of water requirement were calculated and analyzed. The results indicated： the spatial variation of the precipitation suitability degree on each key development period of water requirement of winter wheat had not significant difference, but the temporal was bigger variation. The coefficient of variation was 0.79, 0.72, 0.65, respectively in the regreening-elongation stage, elongation-heading stage, filling stage. Precipitation suitability trend of winter wheat had not significant difference, and the change rate was 0.002. Cumulative frequency about precipitation suitability degree in 0.8 following at each key development period of water requirement was 83%-87%, there was high risk for cultivation. Precipitation became the limited factor of the growth of winter wheat.

关 键 词：冬小麦 降水适宜度 保证率 风险分析 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]