用相似释用方法制作小麦生育期逐旬气候预测  

Similar Interpretation Method Used in Climate Prediction in Wheat Growing Season

作　　者：史印山[1] 顾光芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省气候中心,石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象科技》2013年第2期389-393,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：河北省科技厅重点研究项目"河北省小麦干旱灾害预估技术研究"(10227108D)资助

摘　　要：利用气候模式产品、NCEP/NCAR再分析500hPa旬平均高度资料和河北省冬小麦种植区各测站的逐旬降水、气温资料。运用相似释用技术,研制了冬小麦返青—拔节、拔节—抽穗、抽穗—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个生育期间逐旬气温、降水预测方法,建立了冬小麦各生育期干旱指标预测模型,并在预测业务中应用。预测检验结果表明,用模式产品解释应用方法制作逐旬气候预测是可行的。A new interpretation method for making 10-day average temperature and precipitation prediction during different wheat growth stages is developed based on the predictions of a climate model,the NCEP/NCAP reanalysis data,and in-site observations of temperature and precipitation.Meanwhile,a new drought prediction model is devised,which has been put into operation.The operational use shows that this model is practicable.

关 键 词：释用方法 小麦生育期 旬气候预测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]