基于景气指数理论框架的广西区域性经济预警系统构建  

Build the Guangxi regional economic early warning system based on the theoretical framework of the climate index

作　　者：许阳千[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西经济管理干部学院

出　　处：《广西经济管理干部学院学报》2013年第2期81-86,共6页Journal of GuangXi Cadres College of Economic and Management

基　　金：广西经济管理干部学院社科基金项目"构建广西宏观经济监测预警调控系统"(09BJLB013)阶段性成果

摘　　要：在经济波动与经济周期理论基础上,结合广西区域经济特点,利用时差相关分析法归纳出反映广西区域性经济特征的先行、一致和滞后指标,绘制了扩散指数曲线和近一年来的预警信号灯,分析评价和预测当前经济形势与未来经济走势,初步完善了广西经济预警系统三大模块。结果表明目前广西经济正处于偏冷状态,进一步滑坡的概率较大。This paper based on the theory of economic fluctuations and economic cycles and combined with the Guangxi regional economic characteristics, used difference correlation analysis to summarized the characteristics, consistent and lagging indicators of Guangxi regional economic. It also drawn a diffusion index curve and the warning signal system in the past year to evaluate and predict the current economic situation and future economic trends, improved three modules of the Guangxi economic early warning system. The results showed that Guangxi current situation is in a colder stage, the probability of further landslides.

关 键 词：经济预警 时差相关系数 扩散指数 预警信号系统 广西 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]