基于SUR模型的城镇化与农业产业结构关系研究——来源于山东省面板数据实证检验  

Study on the Relationship of Urbanization and Agricultural Industrial Structure with SUR Models——Based on the Empirical Test of Panel Data in Shandong Province

作　　者：代斌[1] 王萍萍[1] 崔宇明[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院,山东威海264209

出　　处：《科技与经济》2013年第3期36-40,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目--"城镇化发展对粮食生产和粮食安全的作用机制研究--以山东省为例"(项目编号:10YJAZH088;项目负责人:吴佩林)成果之一

摘　　要：农业产业结构调整是提高农民收入、发展农村经济的战略性措施,而城镇化进程的推进为农业产业结构优化升级提供了必要的条件。从理论上分析了城镇化对于农业结构的内在影响机制,选取1990—2011年山东省各地级市面板数据,测算农业产业结构变动系数,建立似不相关回归模型(SUR),从实证上进一步研究城镇化对农业内部各部门的影响程度。结果表明,城镇化对山东省农业结构变动有显著的促进作用,有利于农业资源的合理配置和农业结构的优化升级。The adjustment of agricultural industrial structure is a strategic measure to increase farmers＇ income and to develop rural economy, while the promotion of urbanization process provides the necessary conditions for the optimization and upgrade of agricultural industrial structure. In this paper, we analyze the internal influencing mechanism of urbanization on the agricultural structure theoretically. Based on the panel data for the period from 1990 to 2011 of the prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province, this article also calculates the agricultural industrial structure coefficient of variation and tests the dynamic relationship between urbanization and the changes of agricultural structure. Besides, this paper gives a further study on the impact that urbanization has brought on the agricultural sub-sectors from the empirical aspect by establishing the SUR model. The empirical results indicate that the urbanization plays a significant role in facilitating the adjustment of agricultural structure in Shandong Province, and also contributes to the rational allocation of agricultural resources and the optimization and upgrade of agricultural structure.

关 键 词：城镇化 农业结构 面板数据 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F327F224