第十二届全运会我国各主要省市竞技实力前瞻  

Response to the 12th National Games in Major Provinces and Cities in Our Country Group Competitive Power Analysis

作　　者：沈丽娟[1] 崔志翔[1] 

机构地区：[1]苏州大学体育学院,江苏苏州215021

出　　处：《体育研究与教育》2013年第3期10-14,共5页Sports Research and Education

摘　　要：运用文献资料、逻辑推理、数理统计等方法,对第六届至第十一届全运会各主要省市竞技实力进行样本分析,发现"东道主效应"、奥运奖牌带入以及交流政策等因素贯穿始终。基于上述原因分析得出并展望我国第十二届全运会主要省市的竞技实力:(1)传统"三足鼎立"之势已向"多强对抗"发生嬗变,粤、辽、沪、鲁、苏、解放军将重新划分全运版图;(2)辽宁携东道主之势,必将弥补"奥运奖牌带入"的劣势,重现"辽老大"辉煌;(3)浙江仰仗奥运游泳项目强势爆发金牌纯度最高,有望在第十二届全运会冲出第三集团,向第二集团迈进。Use of literature, logical reasoning, and mathematical statistics, the competitive strength of the ma- jor provinces and cities of the 6th-11 th National Games for sample analysis found that the host effect throughout into Olympic medals and exchange policy, based on the above analysis was Looking forward to the competitive strength of the major provinces and cities of China＇s 12th National Games change results show that： （ 1 ） tradition- al ＂three pillars＂ of the situation has been ＂strong confrontation＂ transmutation, Guangdong, Liaoning, Shang- hai, Shandong, the Soviet Union, the People＇s Liberation Army to re-divide up the territory of the whole opera- tion. （2） Liaoning to bring a host of potential, is bound to make up for the disadvantage of ＂Olympic medals＂ into reproduce the brilliant ＂Liao boss＂ ; （3） Zhejiang rely Olympic swimming gold medal in the highest purity strong outbreak, is expected to be out of the current National Games Group III, moving to the second.

关 键 词：全运会 主要省市 集团竞技实力 

分 类 号：G812.2[文化科学—体育学]