市场潜量随网购人数变化的需求扩散模型研究  

Research on Demand Diffusion Model Considering the Variable Potential Adopter Population with the Online Shopping Population

作　　者：徐贤浩[1] 刘田[1] 艾阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2013年第2期12-16,共5页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(71131004);教育部人文社科基金资助项目(09YJA630043)

摘　　要：根据网络购物发展的特征,考虑网购人数对市场潜量的影响来建立动态扩散模型,并将其应用于时装类产品的需求预测。通过具体算例分析验证了短时期内网购人数随时间线性增长的假设,同时验证了市场潜量随网购人数线性增长的假设。采用动态扩散模型进行预测的结果显示,改进的模型可以提高需求预测精确度,对网络渠道经营管理者具有指导意义。Based on characteristics of online shopping,we presented a new dynamic diffusion model considering the effect of the online shopping population on the potential adopter population. Then we applied the model to the demand forecasting of fashionable dress. And example analysis showed that in the short time, the online shopping population had a positive linear relationship with the time, also showed that potential adopter population had a positive linear relationship with the online shopping population. Results forecasted by the dynamic diffusion model showed that the improving model can enhance demand forecasting precision, and had guiding significance to the management of network channel.

关 键 词：网络购物 短生命周期产品 需求扩散 

分 类 号：TB114[理学—概率论与数理统计]