耕地非农化的社会经济驱动因素异质性研究——基于STIRPAT和GWR模型的实证分析  

The Spatial Heterogeneity of Socio-economic Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Conversion:A Case Based on STIRPAT and GWR models

作　　者：苑韶峰[1] 杨丽霞[2] 杨桂山[3] 姚士谋[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学公共管理学院,中国浙江杭州310018 [2]浙江财经学院资源环境与城乡规划管理系,中国浙江杭州310018 [3]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,中国江苏南京210008

出　　处：《经济地理》2013年第5期137-143,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(411711151);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJC630254、0YJA630197)

摘　　要：以“STIRPAT”模型为基础，采用地理加权回归模型（GWR）分析人口数量、富裕度、产业结构和城市化水平等社会经济因素对我国31省市的耕地非农化的影响。结果表明，2003--2008年，东、中、西部地区耕地非农化占全国比重由2003年的55．75％、25．62％、18．64％转变为2008年的48．42％、25．95％、25．63％，可见，空间格局由东部向西部扩散。人12I数量对耕地非农化的影响均呈现正效应，而富裕度、第三产业比重和城市化水平对耕地非农化的影响既有正效应，也有负效应。在东部沿海地区，随人口数量和富裕度的增加会进一步促进耕地非农化，而随第三产业比重和城市化水平的提高又会在一定程度上减缓耕地非农化；但是在中西部地区，人口数量的正效应和富裕度的正负效应的作用相对较弱，而第三产业比重和城市化水平的正效应作用明显强于东部地区。因此，要通过转变经济发展方式，优化产业结构、严格控制人口数量和土地城市化等措施，以协调东部和中西部发展中的用地矛盾。Quantitative analysis of regional socio-economic driving factors on cultivated land conversion might provide a theoretical basis for coordinating between economic development and cultivated land protection. Using the Geographical Weighted Regression model （GWR）, which is one kind of spatial varying coefficient regression models, the paper analyzed the influence of population, affluence, industrial structure and the level of urbanization on the cultivated land conversion （CLC） changes based on STIRPAT model in the 31 provinces of China. The results showed： （~） During 2003-2008, the CLC area in eastern, central and western region accounting for the proportion of the country from 55.75%, 25.62%, 18.64% in 2003 shift to 48.42%, 25.95%, 25.63% in 2008, therefore, spatial pattern of CLC diffused from eastern regions to mid-west regions; @There was a positive effect of population on CLC, and a positive or negative effect of affluence~ the tertiary industry ratio and the level of urbanization on CLC. In the eastern area, the process of CLC would be further promoted with the increase of population and affluence, and slowed down with the increase of the tertiary industry ratio and the level of urbanization to some extent. But in the central and western regions, the positive effects of population and negative effect of the wealth effect were relatively weak, and the positive effects of the tertiary industry proportion and the level of urbanization were significantly stronger than the effect in the eastern region. So, the policy, such as the transformation of economic development mode, optimization the industrial structure, strict control of population and land urbanization, should be carried out to coordinate the land conflict in development of eastern and mid-west regions.

关 键 词：社会经济驱动因素 STIRPAT模型 耕地非农化 地理加权回归模型 空间异质性 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]