气候变化下老哈河流域潜在植被动态变化模拟  

Simulation of dynamic changes of potential vegetation in Laohahe Basin under scenario of climate change

作　　者：邓欢欢[1] 袁飞[1] 任立良[1] 周瑜佳[1] 常帅鹏[1] 马贺[1,2] 赵晶晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河南省漯河水文水资源勘测局,河南漯河462001

出　　处：《水资源保护》2013年第3期19-24,共6页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50909033);高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B08048)

摘　　要：依据老哈河流域自然地理特征,对LPJ模型参数进行修正,对比模拟的基准年潜在植被分布与TM遥感数据解译的2000年土地覆被数据,发现改进的LPJ模型能较好地模拟老哈河流域植被类型的空间分布趋势。采用IPCC-SRES B2情景气候数据和LPJ模型模拟2000—2100年老哈河流域潜在植被对气候变化的响应。结果表明:2071—2100年老哈河流域林地面积大幅度增加,呈现向东和向北移动趋势,而草本植被逐渐减少;各月平均叶面积指数除2020s夏季外均高于基准年;在气候变化情景下,植被净初级生产力南高北低分布的格局基本不变,但总量逐渐上升,且原本净初级生产力值较高的南部地区增加最为明显。Based on the physiographical features of the Laohahe Basin, the bioclimatic parameters of the LPJ model were modified. The spatial distribution of potential vegetation in the base year computed by the modified LPJ model was in agreement with the land cover data obtained through interpreting TM remote sensing information in the Laohahe Basin in 2000, indicating that the modified LPJ model can better simulate the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in the Laohahe Basin. The LPJ model was used for simulation of the response of potential vegetation to climate change under results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios （ IPCC SRES） B2. The results show that forestland area will increase greatly, and tend to move northward and eastward during the period from 2071 to 2100, while herbaceous vegetation coverage will decrease. The mean monthly values of the leaf area index （LAI） will be higher than those in the base year except for summers of the 2020s. Under the scenario of future climate change, the spatial pattern of net primary productivity （NPP） decreasing from the south to the north will show less change. However, the total NPP will gradually increase, with a significant increase in the south.

关 键 词：气候变化 潜在植被 LPJ模型 老哈河流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]