土地征收对农民收入的效应估计——基于苏州市和武汉市微观数据的实证  

Estimation of the Effection of Land Acquisition on Peasant Income——case Suzhou and Wuhan

作　　者：谭术魁[1] 沈立威[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院土地管理系,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国房地产（学术版）》2013年第5期64-73,共10页China Real Estate

摘　　要：本文根据苏州市和武汉市的微观数据,运用非实验数据政策效应评估理论与实证研究方法,在充分考虑异质性和选择偏差的基础上,改进因Mincer而普及的明瑟尔收益方程,设定选择偏差下的效应参数,借助MTE模型估计土地征收对农民收入的效应。研究结果表明:分散化决策条件下,符合经济理性的农民依据比较利益选择是否征地,征地对收入的效应因人而异。用OLS估计征地对农民收入的效应值为8.9%,考虑异质性和选择偏差估计出的征地对农民收入的平均效应为11.9%的正值。但负的选择偏差为-9%,说明征地对不同经济条件的农民是不平等的。According to the micro data from Suzhou and Wuhan, utilizing non-experiment data policy effect assessment theory and demonstration research method, and taking fully consideration of heterogeneity and selection deviation, the thesis improves the equation of return in Mincer which is created and promoted by Mr. Mincer, determines the effect parameter under the selection deviation, and estimates the effect of land acquisition on peasant income, with the help of MTE model.The research reveals：under the condition of decentralization decision-making, peasants with economic rationality choose whether to lend their lands according to comparative advantage.The effect of land acquisition to income varies depending on different people.Taking into account of Neterogeneity and Selection-Bias, the estimated average policy effect of land acquisition on peasants is positive 11.9 percent, however negative selection deviation（-9%）proves that land acquisition unequally impacts the peasants with different family economic conditions.

关 键 词：土地征收 农民收入 异质性 选择偏差 效应 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]