复杂多因素影响下区域旱情评价体系研究  

Study on the Regional Drought Evaluation System Under Complex Multi-Factor Affection

作　　者：张文胜[1,2] 刘锦娣 王建朋[3] 商翠敏[3] 安军锋[3] 郭振环[3] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学交通运输学院,河北石家庄050043 [2]河北省交通安全与控制重点实验室,河北石家庄050043 [3]河北省农业厅信息中心,河北石家庄050011

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第5期41-43,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：河北省科技支撑计划项目(11220904D);河北省交通厅科技项目(J-2010114);石家庄市科技支撑计划项目(101131081A)

摘　　要：在考虑旱情影响因素的多层次性、旱情评价系统的非线性和复杂性的基础上,结合乘法组合赋权法和集对分析法,构建出一种复杂多因素影响下的区域旱情评价体系。利用熵值法和层次分析法确定指标的组合权重,以有效削弱层次分析法的主观性;运用集对分析法代替模糊综合评判法,以更精细刻画指标值与旱情等级间的复杂联系程度。将该评价体系运用于河北省山前平原区域旱情评价,评价结果与河北省山前平原实际干旱发生的程度相符。On the basic of taking multiple-layered influence factors of drought and nonlinearity and complexity of drought evaluation system into ac- count, the multiplication combination weighting method and set pair analysis method were combined to build a regional drought evaluation system under the influence of a kind of complex multiple factors. The combination weight of the evaluation indexes was determined by use of entropy meth- od and analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to effectively weaken the subjectivity of analytic hierarchy process; the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was replaced by set pair analysis to more-refined depict the complex links between index value and drought classification. The regional drought in Hebei Province piedmont was evaluated using this drought evaluation system, and it is proved that the evaluation results correspond with the actual degree of drought in Hebei Province.

关 键 词：干旱 集对分析 熵权 组合权重 山前平原 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]