房地产资本税对房地产业及国民经济影响的实证研究  

The Empirical Study of Effects of Real Estate Capital Tax Policy on Real Estate Industry and National Economy

作　　者：梁云芳[1] 张同斌[1] 高玲玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2013年第5期37-46,共10页Statistical Research

基　　金：全国博士学位论文作者专项资金资助项目(201005);霍英东教育基金会项目(131086);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-11-1009);国家社会科学基金重大项目(10zd&010)的资助

摘　　要：本文构建了房地产资本税的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,考察了房地产资本税政策对房地产业及国民经济的影响。结论表明,房地产资本税率的提高可以拉动房地产业的发展,而房地产资本税率降低则有利于房地产业的内部结构优化。增加房地产资本税收能够促进与房地产业后向关联较大的原材料工业和金融业、前向关联较大的生产者服务业和消费者服务业的产出增长。房地产资本税率增加还会使得物价上升、政府和居民的收入增长,但税率上升导致要素相对价格的变化使得对资本要素的需求减少。此外,房地产资本税能够减缓房价变动对经济的冲击,并且具有典型的"内在稳定器"作用。This paper specified the real estate capital tax computable general equilibrium（CGE） model and studied the effects of real estate capital tax policy on the real estate industry and national economy.The results show that upgrading the real estate capital tax rate can promote the development of real estate industry,and the real estate capital rate reduction is helpful for the internal structure optimization of the real estate industry.Increasing the real estate capital tax rate can also promote the output growth of raw material industry and the financial sector that have high backward relationship of real estate industry,and the output growth of producer service industry and consumer services that have high forward correlation with real estate industry.Real estate capital rate increase promotes prices rise and enhances the government and residents′ income growth,but it also leads to changes in elements relative prices and then leads to less demand for capital element.In addition,the real estate capital tax can alleviate the impacts of house prices changes on the economy,thus it owns the typical ＂inner stabilizer＂ effect.

关 键 词：房地产资本税 国民经济 CGE模型 内在稳定器 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]