我国区域创新体系建设的量化情景分析  

Scenario Analysis on the Construction of Regional Innovation System in China

作　　者：王玲玲[1,2] 李芳林[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2013年第10期45-50,共6页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(08AJY024);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX12_0179)

摘　　要：区域创新体系建设是提高区域经济新一轮竞争力的基石,意义重大。影响我国区域创新体系建设的因素众多,且很多因素表现出发展变化快、不确定性强的特征。因此,我国未来区域创新体系建设面临的环境是由多种影响因素共同构成的不断变化的场景,对不确定性把握的准确与否,直接关系到我国区域创新体系建设的有效性。设计了我国区域创新体系建设的量化情景分析路径,综合运用SWOT分析、GE矩阵、马尔科夫链、非线性规划等方法,构造情景;并依据情景概率的数值,对所列情景组合进行排序,从中选出未来10年内最有可能面对的5种情景并加以描述与分析,判断未来我国区域创新体系建设可能面临的战略态势,为有效推进我国区域创新体系建设提供参考依据。Construction of regional innovation system is the cornerstone of improving regional economy competitiveness, which has great significance. There are many factors to influence the construction of the regional innovation system in our country, and many factors t show uncertain and complicated. So, regional innovation system in our country in the future facing the environment is composed of a variety of factors common changing scenes, uncertainty to grasp accurate or not, is directly related to the effectiveness of the regional innovation system in our country. This paper designs the scenario a- nalysis procedure according to the characteristics of the construction of regional innovation system in China, and then de- scribes and analyses 5 representative situations by comprehensive use of the SWOT analysis, GE matrix, Markov chain and nonlinear programming. And according to the situation probability values, the scene combination sort listed, choose the next 10 years is most likely to face and description and analysis of five scenarios of the future may face the strategic posture of regional innovation system construction in our country, provide a reference for effectively promoting the con- struction of regional innovation system in our countrv.

关 键 词：区域创新体系 情景分析 情景概率 战略态势 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]