基于趋势分解的机场季节旅客吞吐量预测方法  

An Analyzing Method of Airport' Seasonal Passenger Transport Demand Based on Superimposing Trend

作　　者：张培文[1] 王晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航飞行学院航空运输管理学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《科技和产业》2013年第5期44-46,100,共4页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61179074;60776820);民航飞行技术与飞行安全科研基地开放基金项目(F2012KF05);中国民航飞行学院自然科学基金项目(J2008-28)

摘　　要：针对机场季节旅客吞吐量的特点,提出了基于趋势分解的机场季节旅客吞吐量预测方法,其基本思想是:首先根据机场季节旅客吞吐量历史数据的移动平均数,计算平均季节指数并进行修正,然后构建机场季节吞吐量趋势变动模型,从而构建航线季节客运需求分析模型。仿真结果表明该方法可行且结果具有较高的精度,可作为预测机场季节旅客吞吐量的有效工具。According to the characteristics of airport＇s seasonal passenger transport volume, this paper presents a predictive method on it, of which the basic idea is： firstly, calculate the average seasonal index and make amendment according to the moving average of the historical statistics of airport＇s seasonal passenger transport volume; then construct a trend model on it; and finally construct a demand analyzing model on airliners seasonal passenger transportation. As the simulation result show, this method is feasible and highly accurate. It can be applied as an effective tool to predict airport＇s seasonal passenger transport volume.

关 键 词：季节客运量 预测 趋势分解 移动平均 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济]