土地出让与房价的互动对居民消费影响研究  

The Impact of the Interaction between Land Transfer and Housing Prices on Residents’Consumption

作　　者：李勇刚[1,2] 张鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]南京大学经济学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第3期91-96,共6页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJY010);国家社会科学基金一般项目(10BJY094);国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJL071);安徽省教育厅人文社科一般项目(SK2013B017);安徽财经大学经济发展研究中心重点项目(ACJD0902ZD);安徽财经大学青年项目(ACKYQ1116)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：土地供给政策在房地产市场宏观调控中扮演了重要角色,对房价和居民消费产生了重要影响。基于1999-2011年全国31个省区市面板数据,本文运用面板联立方程模型研究了土地出让与房价波动对居民消费的影响。结果发现:土地出让与房价存在负向的互动关联,两者的相互作用抑制了房价对居民消费的促进作用;土地出让面积的增加通过房价的传导作用,对居民消费产生了挤出效应。进一步分析发现,房地产财富效应存在显著的区域差异,东部地区的房地产财富效应显著大于中西部地区。Land supply policy plays an important role in the macro-economic control of the real estate markets and critically affects housing prices and residents＇ consumption. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2011, this paper employs a panel simul- taneous equation model to study the effects of land transfer on the change in housing prices and residents＇ consumption. It reaches the conclusions that land transfer and housing prices negatively interact with each other and the interaction between them inhibits the positive effect of housing prices on residents＇ consumption; the rise in land transfer size has the crowding-out effect on residents consumption through the transmission function of housing prices. Further analysis indicates that the wealth effect of the real estate market varies with regions, namely the wealth effect of the real estate market in the eastern region is signifi- cantly greater than the ones in the central and western regions.

关 键 词：土地出让 房价 居民消费 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]