基于CA模型的防城港海岸线预测模拟  

Predictive simulation of the Fangchenggang coastline based on CA model

作　　者：张钰[1] 王让会[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院,南京210044

出　　处：《国土资源遥感》2013年第2期149-155,共7页Remote Sensing for Land & Resources

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2012BAD16B0305;2012BAC23B01);国家973计划项目(编号:2006CB705809)共同资助

摘　　要：将多时相卫星遥感图像叠加技术与GIS空间分析方法相结合,对研究防城港海岸线演变特征及预测海岸线变化趋势具有重要的现实意义。首先,对防城港2000年11月及2010年10月获取的2个时相TM图像进行预处理、海岸线特征信息提取及空间分析;然后,根据相关控制因素及相应的邻居规则建立元胞自动机(cellular automa-ta,CA)模型,利用蒙特.卡罗方法(Monte Carlo method)结合控制因素进行判断,最终确定元胞的转化状态。通过2010年实际海岸线与预测海岸线的叠置分析得知,2010年预测海岸线的数量精度为83.65%,空间位置精度为93.45%,都在误差允许范围内,证明利用蒙特.卡罗CA模型预测海岸线的方法是可行的。最后,结合CA模型算法及Matlab仿真技术实现了对2020年防城港海岸线的预测。This study combines the use of multi - temporal satellite remote sensing images with the GIS spatial analysis method. The study of the changing characteristics of Fangchenggang coastline has important practical significance. The TM images of Fangchenggang in two phases were obtained in November 2000 and October 2010, First, preprocessing, extraction of feature information of coastline and spatial analysis were conducted for two - phase TM images of Fangchenggang. Then, the CA model was established in accordance with the relevant controlling factors and the corresponding neighbor rules. On such a basis, the Monte Carlo method was used in combination with the controlling factors to make judgment so as to finalize the conversion of cellular state. The actual and prediction image overlay analysis in 2010 shows that the number accuracy of prediction coastline is 83.65% , and the spatial location accuracy is 93.45% , whose values are in the range of allowable error. It is shown that the use of the CA model to predict the shoreline in Monte Carlo method is practical. Finally, the prediction of the Fangchenggang coastline in 2020 was realized based on the combination of CA model algorithm with Matlab technology.

关 键 词：海岸线 遥感 防城港 预测模拟 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]