基于收入视角的我国生育率降低原因研究  

The Research on the Reason of Fertility Rate Decreased in China based on the Perspective of Income

作　　者：薛继亮[1] 张建武[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2013年第7期96-100,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究基金资助项目(09XJA790007);内蒙古大学高层次人才引进科研资助项目(30105-125142)

摘　　要：在目前中国"放开二胎"这样一个呼声越来越高的情况下,研究收入和生育率的关系具有重要的现实意义。本文利用人均GDP和总和生育率的时间序列数据,通过单位根检验、协整分析和向量误差模型以及脉冲响应函数分析等实证研究方法,对我国的生育率变化的原因进行了深入探索。结果发现总和生育率和收入之间存在显著的线性关系,并且二者之间存在长期稳定的关系;无论是在短期还是长期,人均GDP和总和生育率之间都存在一个同期效应,相互作用。因此,从中国目前经济社会发展来看,放开二胎是有条件的,必须在居民处于较高生活水平和较完善的社会保障下,其关键在于如何提高居民收入和完善社会保障。只有这样才能保证"放开二胎"后不会对家庭和社会造成较大的冲击。In the voice of ＂two-child＂ which is more and more high, the study on the relationship of income and fertility rate has important practical significance. The paper used time series data of per capita GDP and total fertility rate, explored the China＇s fertility rate change reason by the unit root test, cointegration and vector error model and impulse response function analysis and other empirical research methods. The results showed that the total fertility rate and income have obvious linear relationship, and exists a long and stable relationship, whether in the short or long time, per capita GDP and total fertility rate have a contemporaneous effect, interaction. Therefore, from the view of China＇s current economic and social development, allowing a second child is conditional. The residents should be in the high living standard and a perfect social security. The key is how to increase the income of residents and improve the social security. Only in this way we could guarantee not to cause great impact to the family and society after allowing a second child.

关 键 词：总和生育率 人口生育率 生育条件 生育意愿 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]