基于FTA的临港产业集群风险系统分析  

The System Analysis of Port-vicinity Industrial Cluster Risk Based on Fault Tree Analysis

作　　者：贾晓霞[1] 肖敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学,上海201306

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2013年第5期69-77,共9页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(项目编号:12CGL031);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(项目编号:10YJC630096);上海市教委科研创新项目(项目编号:12YS072)

摘　　要：基于临港产业集群风险系统的构成,通过事故树的构建揭示了各层风险事件之间的逻辑关系,并对临港产业集群风险发生的可能途径和各基本事件的结构重要度进行了定性分析,而各主要风险事件和基本风险事件发生概率的变化对临港产业集群风险发生概率的影响程度,以及降低各基本风险事件发生概率的难易程度进行了量化分析,为进一步的风险控制和预警提供一种管理参照。Based on the structure of port-vicinity industrial cluster risk system,the logical relationship of risk events in each level is analyzed by the use of FTA.Then possible occurrence ways and structural importance level of each basic event are qualitatively analyzed.Moreover,the extent of impact to the risk probability in port-vicinity industrial cluster is brought forward quantitatively,which is produced by the risk probability change of each main event and basic event.The possibility to reduce each basic event is also analyzed in order to put forward a management reference for the further risk control and risk pre-warning.

关 键 词：临港产业集群 事故树分析 风险分析 

分 类 号：F263[经济管理—国民经济]