基于AHP和云模型的中蜂囊状幼虫病风险评估方法研究  

Risk assessment for Chinese bee metacercariae disease based on AHP and cloud model

作　　者：孟天祥[1] 张友华[1] 余林生[2] 李耘[3] 王庆人[1] 刘萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽农业大学信息与计算机学院,合肥230036 [2]安徽农业大学动物科技学院,合肥230036 [3]中国农业科学院农业质量标准与检测技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报》2013年第3期434-437,共4页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University

基　　金：安徽省科技攻关项目(12010302079);现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS_45_KXJ9)共同资助

摘　　要：风险评估是降低蜜蜂病害发病率,促进蜂产业发展的有效途径。以中蜂囊状幼虫病为研究对象,提出一种基于AHP和云模型的风险评估方法。该方法在参照专家知识的基础上,通过因子计算得出指标权重,再将目标对象病情态势描述与黄金分割法生成的标尺云进行语义匹配,获得态势隶属度矩阵,把指标权重带入矩阵进行归一化处理,最终形成目标对象的综合评估云,实现定性、定量相结合的病势风险评估。实验结果表明,该方法所得结果符合蜂学领域的实际情况,能够有效地对中蜂囊状幼虫病进行评估,为进一步病害预防奠定基础。The risk assessment is an effective way to reduce bee disease incidence, and promote the development of bee industry. In this paper, we present a hybrid assessment method of AHP and cloud model for Chinese bee metacercariae disease. On the based of experts＇ knowledge, the index weight factor could be got through factor calculation, and scale cloud could be obtained by golden section method. The bee region＇s qualitative description was then matched with scale cloud to generate the membership degree matrix, and finally the comprehensive evaluation cloud was achieved according to matrix normalization with the weight factor, to realize the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of Chinese bee metacercariae. The experiment results conform to the reality of bee knowledge. The method is a reasonable and efficient scheme for determining the disease severity, which lays a foundation for further prevention of disease.

关 键 词：中蜂囊状幼虫病 风险评估 AHP 云模型 

分 类 号：S895.1[农业科学—特种经济动物饲养]