奥巴马第二任期美国外交政策走向析论  

The Analysis of the U.S. Foreign Policy in Obama’s Second Term

作　　者：李恒阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《国际安全研究》2013年第3期39-51,156,共13页Journal of International Security Studies

摘　　要：奥巴马竞选连任获胜,体现了美国民众对其过去四年执政成绩的肯定。未来四年,奥巴马会基本延续其第一任期内的外交方针政策,并在一些问题上力图有所突破。美国的亚太"再平衡"战略不会变,亚太地区仍是美国外交政策的重点。美国将完成从阿富汗撤军。美国对伊朗的经济制裁将继续下去。美国将进一步支持叙利亚反对派的斗争,推进阿拉伯世界的"民主化"进程。美国将全面推动美俄关系的发展,并始终关注朝核问题。然而,目前美国的国内、国际局势并不乐观,奥巴马在其第二任期内的外交政策将受到诸多挑战。美国的政治"极化"和社会分化造成了大量矛盾,对奥巴马第二任期的施政将造成不利影响。北约内部矛盾重重,美国希望利用北约主导全球事务的构想很难实现。西亚北非地区的不稳定局势牵制美国战略重心转移。未来阿富汗的局势将不容乐观。鉴于国际形势和美国实力的变化,奥巴马在其新任期内的外交目标很难完全实现,美国外交战略的实施将不会一帆风顺。The re-election of President Obama has shown the affirmation of the American people for Obama’s achievements in the past four years.In the next term,Obama will continue the diplomatic policy in his first term and try to break through on some issues.The U.S.rebalance strategy in Asia-Pacific will not be changed,and it is still the pivot of the U.S.foreign policy.The U.S.will totally withdraw its troops from Afghanistan,impose economic sanctions against Iran,continue to give support to the oppositions in Syria,and promote the 'democratization' process in Arabdom.In addition,the U.S.will strengthen its relationship with Russia in all aspects,and try to mitigate the threats in the Korean Peninsular with both sanctions and engagement.However,Obama will have to face many challenges as well: the political polarization and social division,the internal contradictions among NATO members,the uncertainty in West Asia,North Africa and Afghanistan all might harm the U.S.global strategic interests.Given the changing international situation and the decline of American power,it will be difficult for Obama to implement his foreign strategy and achieve all his diplomatic objectives in the new term.

关 键 词：美国大选 奥巴马政府 外交政策 巧实力外交 再平衡战略 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]