构建输入性传染病预警指标体系的研究  

A Study on the Establishment of the Early-warning Index System for Imported Infectious Diseases in Yiwu City

作　　者：叶晓军[1] 范伟忠 沈毅[2] 任茹香[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]义乌市疾病预防控制中心,浙江义乌322000 [2]浙江大学公卫学院 [3]绍兴市卫生监督所

出　　处：《浙江预防医学》2013年第6期20-23,共4页Zhejiang Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：浙江省科技厅项目(2007C23001)

摘　　要：目的探索输入性传染病预警指标体系,为输入性传染病防控提供依据。方法采用文献法和德尔菲法(Delphi)建立输入性传染病预警指标体系,并对指标获得性、必要性及权重分析。结果两轮Delphi法咨询专家的积极系数分别为100.00%和77.27%,专家对指标熟悉程度均在7分以上,权威系数在8分以上。预警指标体系有3大类38项指标,指标权重系数接近,均在0.02以上;常见传染病病例的聚集程度,实验室高致病性病原微生物菌(毒)种或者样本的被盗、被抢、丢失和泄漏事件发生,省内其他地区传染病疫情的通告,人口密集单位(如幼儿园,学校,工地等)发现症状相似病人,人口密集单位(如幼儿园、学校、工地等)的缺勤率及因病缺勤率增加等5项指标的相对重要性居前5位。结论预警指标体系涵盖了传染病流行不同阶段及其社会和自然影响因素,应用时需根据疾病和地区的特点进行指标的取舍和修订。Objective To explore the early - warning index system for imported infectious diseases, and to provide a basis for imported infectious diseases prevention and control. Methods The early warning indexes system for imported infectious diseases was established by using the methods of Literature Survey and Delphi consultant method. The availability, necessity and the weights of indexes were analyzed. Results Positive coefficient of the two rounds of Delphi consultation were 100.00% and 77.27%. Experts on the index of familiarty were more than 7 points, the authority coefficient is more than 8 points. The warning index system included 3 categories and 38 indicators. The weight coefficients of the index is close to 0.02 or more. The top five indexes were the aggregation degree of common infectious diseases, the incidents that the highly pathogenic bacteria （virus） or the samples were stolen, robbed, lost or leaked, the notice of the infectious diseases at the other areas of Zhejiang province, the incidents that the patients with similar symptoms were found at the densely populatod area （such as kindergartens, schools, construction sites and others） and the incidents that the absenteeism or sickness absence rate increased at the densely populated loeations according to the weight coefficients of the indexes. Conclusion The different epidemic stages of the infectious diseases, the social and natural factors are considered in the early warning index system. The indexes should be adjusted when the index system is put into use according to the characteristics of the disease and the district.

关 键 词：传染病 预警 德尔菲法 分析 

分 类 号：R181.23[医药卫生—流行病学]