带补偿生育的政策总和生育率测算模型及其应用  

A Measuring Model on TFRs with Compensatory Births under a Loosening Birth-Policy

作　　者：周长洪[1] 陈友华[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京人口管理干部学院 [2]南京大学社会学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2013年第3期10-18,126,共9页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"生育政策的完善与平稳过渡"(项目号07BRK011)的部分研究成果

摘　　要："完善生育政策"是国家"十二五"规划提出的重要任务,为了设计平稳过渡的政策方案,一个挑战性任务就是预测生育政策变动可能引起的政策总和生育率变动。文章给出一种带补偿生育的政策总和生育率测算模型,可用于预测某种生育政策变动方案可能引起的政策生育率变动后果,进而为评价和选择生育政策调整方案提供重要决策信息。文章根据2000年第五次全国人口普查资料和2005年全国1%人口变动抽样调查资料,利用此模型测算了生育政策由"‘双独'家庭可生二孩"调整为"‘单独'家庭可生二孩"后,带补偿生育的政策总和生育率变动后果。预测结果显示,分区域逐步实行"‘单独家庭'可生二孩"的政策微调方案后,发生的补偿生育不会引发明显"生育堆积",该微调方案有助于生育政策向普遍二孩平稳过渡。Having a sound and improved population policy is a major task in the 12th Five-Year Plan period,and the challenge of making a soft-landing population policy is to estimate the birth rate change that follows a policy change.This article introduces a model of measuring the policy-TFRs with compensatory births induced by loosening birth-policy.Based on this model with the data of 2000 national population census and the 2005 sampling survey on 1%of population,the possible TFR increases with compensatory births,which allow the families to have 2 children as long as one of the parents has no siblings,are projected in the next 20 years.The results show that the TFR increases induced by policy change are moderate,and there is not obvious accumulation of births.

关 键 词：生育政策 生育率测算 人口预测 补偿性生育 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]