土石过水围堰条件下的水电工程施工进度风险研究  

Construction progress risk of hydropower engineering under the condition of earth-rock overtop cofferdam

作　　者：陈述[1] 胡志根[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第6期1622-1627,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51079115);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(201120602020006)

摘　　要：土石过水围堰条件下的水电工程施工,受基坑淹没和基坑恢复时间的随机性影响,工序历时估计、有效施工天数和规定完工日期等因素具有不确定性、使其施工进度延误无法预知.基于施工进度风险的这种占线特性,分析水电工程施工进度风险因素,建立占线进度风险模型,计算占线策略的竞争比.依据一般占线策略与离线最优策略的关系,引入风险补偿模型,根据决策人不同的风险容忍度和未来预期,优化风险补偿策略,为水电工程的施工进度决策提供了理论支持.Impacted by the time randomness of pit submerged and recovery, uncertainty factors such as process duration, effective construction days and the completion date, lead that the construction progress delay of hydropower engineering under the condition of earth-rock overtop cofferdam is unpredictable. Based on the online characteristics of construction progress risk, the construction progress risk of hydropower engineering is analyzed and then an online progress risk model is built. Furthermore the competitive ratio of the strategy is calculated. In the light of the relationship between the general online strategy and the optimal offline strategy, the risk-reward model to optimize the risk compensation strategy is introduced. Simultaneously, the risk compensation strategy is optimized according to the different decision-makers＇ risk tolerance and forecast.

关 键 词：土石过水围堰 施工进度 占线特征 风险补偿 

分 类 号：TV854[水利工程—水利水电工程]