广东省社会稳定监测指标体系与预警方法研究  

Monitoring and Early Warning System on Social Stability in Guangdong Province

作　　者：朱帮助[1] 吴万水[1] 孙晋众[1] 肖纯[1] 

机构地区：[1]五邑大学经济管理学院,广东江门529020

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第11期33-41,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：广东省软科学研究项目(2009B270300146)

摘　　要：社会稳定监测与预警是创造、保持和谐社会的重要手段.根据社会稳定理论研究的相关成果,在初步遴选8大类73个指标的基础上,通过聚类分析选定12个指标构建社会稳定监测指标体系,并提出了基于3σ控制原理的社会稳定预警方法.通过对广东省社会稳定状况进行实证分析,结果表明广东省未来5年社会稳定基本上处于可控状态.The monitoring and early warning system of social stability is an important measure to ensure society in harmony. Based on the exsiting literature for social stability and the monitoring system including seventy-three indexes, this paper uses cluster analysis to select twelve indexes as the monitoring system, and brings forward an early warning approach for social stability based on the principle of 3a. Empirical analysis in Guangdong province is applied to verify its effectiveness that shows that the social stabilities in Guangdong province in following-five-year are in control on the whole.

关 键 词：社会稳定 预警准则 聚类分析 3σ控制原理 广东省 

分 类 号：D67[政治法律—政治学]