国债风险的超警戒线概率评价方法构建与应用  

A Method Construction and Application of Government Debt Risk Assessment that Evaluates Probability of Exceeding Warning Line

作　　者：王浩[1] 陈云[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人保集团中国人民财产保险股份有限公司,北京100022 [2]北方工业大学理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第11期121-129,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<城乡居民收入差距的非参数统计分析及政策调整研究>(10CJY017);北京市优秀人才培养资助项目<收入分布视角下北京市居民收入分配格局变迁及政策优化研究>(2011D005002000002)

摘　　要：传统的国债风险评估方法一般只反映历史已发生情况,对未来风险状况凭借主观经验进行判断.利用随机模型建立一种评价国债风险指标超警戒线概率的方法,实现对国债风险的预测和定量评估.根据该方法,参考《马斯特里赫特条约》警戒线,对2012-2020年我国国债风险进行实证研究,结果发现:随着我国财政收入的快速增长,中央政府的偿债能力有所增强,赤字状况稳定,偿付风险进一步降低.但是,值得注意的是我国政府依然有较大的债务存量,如果未来经济发展增速降下来,整个国民经济的债务负担压力可能进一步增加,尤其是普通国民的应债能力可能出现不足.Traditionally, the risk of national debt risk evaluation methods generally reflect the history has occurred and judge future risk status by subjective experience. In this paper, we establish a method for evaluating the probability of debt index exceeding cordon. According to warning line of Maastricht Treaty, through empirical study to the 2012-2020 government debt risk, it showed： with China＇s rapid growth of fiscal revenue, the central government debt paying ability has been enhanced, the deficit is in stable condition, solvency risk will be down. However, it should be noted that our government still has a large stock of debt. If the growth rate of future economic comes down, the debt burden pressure may increase further, especially the common people may be insufficient capacity to buy debt.

关 键 词：国债 风险 评价 随机模型 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]