贸易开放、FDI与房地产业发展——基于中国经验的实证分析  

Trade Liberalization,FDI and Real Estate Development: Empirical Evidence from China

作　　者：姜松[1] 王钊[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,400715

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2013年第5期27-36,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家软科学基金项目(2007GXS3D094);中央高校基本科研基金(SWU1209457)的支持

摘　　要：贸易开放和FDI为我国房地产业带来了新契机,但也对我国房地产业的健康、稳定发展带来严峻挑战。本文基于1999-2010年中国省际面板数据,构建动态面板模型及运用两步系统GMM方法对贸易开放、FDI与房地产业发展进行实证分析,并在此基础上运用门槛面板模型对房地产业FDI的非线性转化特征作进一步进行验证。结果发现,贸易开放、房地产业FDI对中国房地产发展的影响效应显著为负,随着贸易开放水平的提升及房地产业FDI规模不断扩大,其对缓解房地产业资金短缺、促进科技进步、推动房地产业发展的作用已基本消失。且当房地产业FDI跨越第一个门槛值时,其波动性、不稳定性就会显现,负向效应逐步增强,势必对房地产的健康发展造成冲击,引发新的系统风险。Trade liberalization and FDI not only bring a new opportunity to real estate industry development in China, but also pose serious challenges to the health and stable development of our real estate. Based on the Chinese provincial panel data from 1999 to 2010, the dynamic panel model and the method of two-step system GMM, we analyze the impact of trade liberalization and FDI on the development of real estate. The results showed that the effects of trade liberalization and FDI on China＇s real estate development are significantly negative. With the expanding of Trade liberalization and FDI, the impacts of alleviating funds shortage of real estate, enhancing the progress of science and technology, promoting the development of real estate have basically disappeared. And when real estate FDI across a threshold, the volatility caused by speculation, instability, and uncertainty is increasing, which is bound to impact the healthy development of real estate and lead to a new systemic risk.

关 键 词：贸易开放 FDI 房地产业发展 动态面板模型 门槛面板模型 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]