中国钢铁产业产能过剩程度的量化分析与预警  

Quantitative Analysis and Warning on the Excess Capacity of Chinese Iron and Steel Industry

作　　者：冯梅[1] 陈鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第5期110-116,共7页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY079)

摘　　要：本文运用综合指数法并结合灰色系统理论,量化分析了中国钢铁产业1996-2012年产能过剩程度,对未来三年钢铁产业产能过剩程度进行了预警,并从政府、行业协会和企业角度分别提出可操作性的政策建议。研究表明,中国钢铁产业产能过剩的问题长期存在,随着国内外经济环境变化,有可能进一步加剧,化解产能过剩矛盾迫在眉睫。This paper analyses the excess capacity degree of Chinese iron and steel industry from 1996 -2012 through the composite index method and grey system theory, and warns the excess capacity degree of iron and steel industry the next three years. What＇s more, this paper put forward different operability suggestions from government, association and enterprises perspective. The research shows that Chinese iron and steel industry will be in excess capacity in recent years, which will even get worse with the change of domestic and international economic environment. So it is necessary for resolving the contradiction of excess capacity.

关 键 词：钢铁产业 产能过剩 综合指数 灰色预警 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]