科技发展目标、R&D资源清查工作与R&D/GDP指标数据的正态分布特征  

Goals of S&T Development,Project of R&D Resource Survey and Normal Distribution of R&D/GDP Data

作　　者：章刚勇[1,2] 朱世武[3] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 [3]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国软科学》2013年第5期183-192,共10页China Soft Science

摘　　要：自20世纪70年代以来,我国科技统计工作经历了几十年的发展,已逐步形成了一套比较完善、规范并与国际接轨的科技统计指标体系和统计制度。R&D经费/GDP是科技发展目标指标体系的主要指标。2000年和2009年我国分别组织了两次全国R&D资源清查工作,R&D经费支出及占GDP比重虽在资源清查年度的年增长率远高于其它年度,但2000年和2010年科技发展目标仍是落空。由此引发我们对R&D资源清查工作与数据质量,R&D资源清查工作与科技发展目标的思考。本文认为在社会经济稳定和统计调查制度稳定的前提下,一国的R&D投入指标的时序数据应具有服从正态分布的特点。R&D经费及占GDP比重指标数据的正态分布特征在本文得以经验论证。2000年全国R&D资源清查工作破坏了指标数据的正态分布规律,现阶段影响我国R&D投入指标数据质量的最主要因素为科技统计调查制度的稳定性。另外,本文从R&D经费/GDP指标数据具有服从正态分布规律的统计性态出发,对2020年我国R&D经费/GDP进行了预测,认为在2011-2020年间若未展开第三次R&D资源清查工作,2020年R&D经费/GDP发展目标2.5%较难实现。由此引发我们对科技统计调查制度和科技发展目标设定的一些思考。A set of thoroughly standardized S＆T indices system and statistical system have been established acting on in- ternational convention in China since 1970s. R＆D/GDP is a main index in the indices system of S＆T development goals. China experienced the R＆D resource check project respectively in 2000 and in 2009,in which the growth of R＆D expenditures and R＆D/GDP were much higher than those in other year. However, the goals of S＆T development about R＆D/GDP in 2000 and in 2010 fell through yet. The attention has been paid to the relationship between the R＆D re- source check project, goals of S＆T development and data quality. I argue that R＆D input indices of time series are nor- mally distributed provided that stability of economy and society, and statistical investigation system has been ensured then I empirically test it. The R＆D resource check project of 2000 disturbed the normality of R＆D input indices then the quality of data was doubted and I conclude that whether S＆T statistical investigation is stable or not is the main factor in- fluenced the data quality. Furthermore, I induce a model from the normality to estimate the values of R＆D/GDP then predict the goal of S＆T development about it in 2020 may be unreachable.

关 键 词：科技发展目标 R&D资源清查 正态分布 数据质量 

分 类 号：G322[文化科学]