应用曲线回归模型预测辽阳市梅毒发病率  

Prediction of incidence of syphilis in Liaoyang City by curve regression model

作　　者：郝艳会[1] 赵成新 

机构地区：[1]辽阳市疾病预防控制中心,辽宁辽阳111000 [2]辽阳市辽阳县疾控中心,辽宁辽阳111000

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2013年第4期516-517,共2页China Tropical Medicine

摘　　要：目的运用曲线回归模型预测辽阳市梅毒发病趋势,为制定防控措施提供科学依据。方法利用SPSS17.0软件对辽阳市2001～2011年梅毒发病率进行拟合,并建立预测方程。结果辽阳市2001～2011年梅毒发病的预测模型为y=5.082e0.183x,相关系数R2=0.900,2011年梅毒发病率为38.84/10万,预测发病率为38.04/10万。模型的拟合效果较好。结论曲线回归模型可较好地预测辽阳市梅毒发病趋势。Objective To predict the prevalent trend of syphilis in Liaoyang city by curve regression model and provide scientific basis for formulating syphilis prevention and control measure. Methods Data of incidence of syphilis in Liaoyang city from 2001 to 2011 were used for setting up syphilis prediction equation by SPSS17.0. Results The prediction model of the incidence of syphilis was y=5.082e0.183x,the correlation coinficient R2 was 0.900,The actual incidence of syphilis in Liaoyang was 38.04 per hundred thousands and the predictive incidence was 38.04 per hundred thousands.The results predicted by the model fit well with the actual incidence of syphilis in Liaoyang. Conclusions The predicted results of syphilis incidence by curve regression model fit well with the prevalent trend of syphilis in Liaoyang.

关 键 词：梅毒 发病率 曲线回归模型 预测 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]