基于灰色系统理论的钻井液污染储层深度预测  

Drilling Fluid's Damage Depth Prediction Method Based on the Grey System Theory

作　　者：范翔宇[1,2] 王俊瑞[2] 夏宏泉[2] 龚明[3] 张萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]“油气藏地质及开发工程”国家重点实验室西南石油大学,四川成都610500 [2]西南石油大学石油工程学院,四川成都610500 [3]中海油能源发展股份有限公司监督监理技术分公司,天津塘沽300452

出　　处：《西南石油大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期98-104,共7页Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Science & Technology Edition)

摘　　要：由于钻井液污染受诸多因素的影响,很难用单一的函数关系对钻井液污染储层深度加以预测。灰色理论认为一切随机过程都是在一定的时空区域内变化的灰色过程,众多离散的信息总可以发掘出其潜在规律。研究表明,钻井液污染储层深度与地层孔隙度、渗透率、含气饱和度、电性、井筒压差、泥浆密度等因素密切相关。把与影响钻井液污染深度的诸多参数看成观测值,基于灰色理论建立了钻井液污染深度的灰色静态和动态预测模型,并编写了基于灰色系统理论的钻井液污染储层深度预测程序。同时通过对塔中某井钻井液污染深度的定量预测,给出了基于灰色理论预测钻井液污染深度可信度的判断标准,为实现钻井液污染深度的随钻实时化、快速化、智能化预测奠定了必要的理论基础。Because drilling fluid＇s damage is influenced by various factors, it＇s difficult to forecast the damage depth just by a simple functional relationship. The grey theory holds that all random processes are grey processes of change in certain space and time, and the potential law can be explored through many discrete messages. The results of study show that the depth of drilling fluid damage is closely related to porosity, permeability, gas saturation, formation electrical property, shaft differential pressure, drilling fluid density and so on. By taking various parameters influencing drilling fluid damage depth as observed values, we establish the static and dynamic grey forecast model based on the theory of grey theory, and write a forecast software of drilling fluid damage depth. Besides, we present the judgments standard of credibility of damage depth prediction through quantitative forecasting the drilling fluid damage depth of a well in Tazhong area. The above results provide a good theoretical basis for timely, rapid and intelligent while-drilling prediction of damage depth.

关 键 词：钻井液 污染深度 灰色系统理论 可信度 判断标准 实例分析 

分 类 号：TE132.1[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]