中国人口老龄化的消费效应分析——基于生命周期假说理论  

The Impact of Population Aging on Consumption: Based on the LCH

作　　者：陈冲[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州商学院经济学院,兰州730101

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2013年第6期50-57,共8页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(项目编号:10YJC790331)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于Modigliani的生命周期假说理论,本文首先通过动态规划建立了人口老龄化对居民消费产生直接影响的理论模型,然后利用1996—2011年我国29个省级辖区的面板数据实证检验了城乡居民的老龄化水平与其消费率之间的关系。研究结果发现:老龄化水平对城镇居民消费率的影响还不凸显,但是对农村居民的消费率具有较为显著的负影响。另外,由于我国城乡居民消费决策谨慎、习惯稳定,因而短期内伴随着城乡居民收入水平的稳定增长,城乡居民消费支出增长相对缓慢,居民消费率可能呈下降趋势。Cyclical changes of credit constraints output and both of them are also two key channels to and fiscal expenditure are important determinants of industrial stimulate high growth rate of Chinese Economy. The institu- tional change can not simply be concluded as the process of market - oriented investment substituting the fiscal - dominated style. The relationship between fiscal expenditure and credit supply has dynamic switching features, seeming generally complementary and locally substitutive. The complementary feature is more significant regionally.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 消费效应 生命周期假说 

分 类 号：F126.1[经济管理—世界经济]