人口红利、城镇化与我国出口贸易的发展  

Demographic dividend, Urbanization and the Development of China’s Export Trade

作　　者：陈松[1] 刘海云[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2013年第6期57-66,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"国际贸易摩擦的政治经济学分析与对策研究"(项目编号:07BGJ008);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"我国模式的政治经济学分析"(项目编号:12JJD790014);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(项目编号:NKZXB10049)的资助

摘　　要：本文通过经验数据和实证分析证明,我国出口扩张及出口导向型发展模式根源于人口红利和低城镇化率。人口红利带来了充足的劳动力供给和经济的快速增长,但也造成了工资收入增长缓慢,国内消费能力不足。快速工业化和缓慢城镇化加剧了过剩供给能力和国内有限消费能力之间的矛盾。因此,扩大出口成为经济主体的必然选择。基于以上结论,本文就应对人口红利消失和扩大内需提供了相关政策建议。By drawing on an abundance of data and engaging an empirical analysis,this paper proves that China’s export expansion and export-oriented growth mode are rooted in China’s demographic dividend and inadequate urbanization.Demographic dividend brings about sufficient labor supply and accordingly rapid economic growth for China,but it also gives rise to a stagnant labor income which in turn results in a relatively small domestic purchasing power.Rapid industrialization and slow urbanization aggravate the contradiction between over-supplied labor and insufficient consumption capability.Expanding export becomes the only option for this economy.In response to these conclusions,this paper proposes relative policy recommendations for Chinese government to refer to in the face of a diminishing demographic dividend and a need for larger domestic demand.

关 键 词：人口红利 城镇化 出口贸易 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]