北京市能源消费CO_2排放影响因素解析  

Analysis on the Influence Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emission from Energy Consumption in Beijing

作　　者：陈超凡[1] 刘伟[1] 桓汉青[1] 李祚泳[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院资源环境学院,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2013年第3期311-317,共7页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101542);四川省教育厅重点资助项目(12ZA226);成都信息工程学院科研基金(CRF201227;J201213)对本文的资助

摘　　要：为了找出北京市碳排放驱动因素,采用碳排放系数法、对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分析出北京市能源消费CO2排放的主要影响因素,结论如下:北京市CO2排放总量增加主要与经济发展有很大关系,经济规模效应在2000～2010年累计效应为11332.6万吨CO2;通过优化调整产业结构,北京市2000～2010年产业结构总效应为-1178.4万吨CO2;由于节能减排工作的大力推进,以及第三产业占GDP比重快速增加,2000～2010年北京市能源强度效应为-7439.8万吨CO2,起最重要的负向阻碍作用;2000～2010年排放系数效应起着关键负向阻碍的作用(-1568.5万吨CO2),主要得益于能源消耗结构的调整以及能源利用效率的不断提高。最后,提出了北京市低碳发展建议。To find out the carbon emission factors in Beijing, this article uses carbon emission coefficient method and the logarithmic mean Divisia index method to analyze the carbon dioxide emission factors of energy consumption. The results show：The CO2 emissions have great concern with the expansion of economic activity leading to CO2 emissions cumulative effect to 113,326,000 tons in 11 years. Through the adjustment of industrial structure, the total industri- al structure effect is minus 11,784,000 tons in 11 years. The total energy intensity effect is minus 74,398,000 tons from 2000 to 2010, playing an important role in emission reduction. The emission coefficient effect reduces the car- bon emission significantly（cumulative effect is - 15,685,000 tons of carbon dioxide）, which maybe benefit from the adjustment of energy structure and the continuous improvement of energy efficiency. In the end, this article puts for- ward some corresponding development suggestions for the low carbon development of Beijing.

关 键 词：环境科学 大气环境 能源 CO2 影响因素 LMDI 北京市 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]