上海房地产市场预警的理论模型和实证分析  

Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis of Early Warning on Shanghai’s Real Estate Market

作　　者：王盛[1] 翟青[2] 白雨晨[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学商学院,上海200241 [2]上海财经大学,上海200433

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2013年第3期137-144,156,共8页Journal of East China Normal University（Humanities and Social Sciences）

基　　金：上海市决策咨询课题(2012-GR-30)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：房地产业的波动会给其他产业和整个国民经济带来困扰,因此,对房地产市场的波动进行预警意义重大。为此,采用统计拟合预测和6-sigma方法预警相结合的研究思路,以上海房地产市场为例并选择其关键的价格、销量、投资和协调度等指标建立模型并进行拟合,其结果表明,上海房地产市场各子区域的价格影响模式存在差异,外环区域的价格环比值主要与市场销售形势关联更为密切,与投资等因素关联不大,而内、中环区域的价格环比值则与供求关系、合理投资比等关联较为密切。据此,应当分别建立及选择预测模型和预警统计量,并作出符合实际的预警控制图。The fluctuation of real estate market will perplex other sections and even the whole national economy. Therefore, the early warning of this fluctuation is very important. Combining the method of forecasting through statistical fitting and the 6-sigma early warning method, this paper selects key indexes of price, sales volume, investment and coordination degree in Shanghai’s real estate market to fit into the established model. The result shows that there is difference in the price affection model among several sub-markets in Shanghai. While the comparative price ratio of outside-ring district was mainly related with sales rather than investment factors, the comparative price ratio of inner-middle districts was more related with the matter of supply-demand and reasonable investment ratio. Thus, we can make respective forecasting models, alarming statistics, and early warning control charts reflecting the reality.

关 键 词：房地产市场 预警 6-sigma方法 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F224