关于中国北方水资源问题的再认识  

A new perspective on water issues in North China

作　　者：张建云[1,2] 贺瑞敏[1,2] 齐晶[3] 刘翠善[1,2] 王国庆[1,2] 金君良[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [3]水利部海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170

出　　处：《水科学进展》2013年第3期303-310,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2010CB951103);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAC21B01)~~

摘　　要：特殊的地理地形和气候条件决定了中国洪涝干旱灾害频发。由于客观的禀赋条件,中国北方降水量小,水资源供需矛盾突出。在变化环境条件下,中国北方河川径流量呈现减少趋势,且随着经济社会的快速发展,区域需水较大幅度的增加,进一步加剧了北方水资源的供需矛盾;径流变化归因分析表明,人类活动导致的流域下垫面变化、工农业的快速发展及其他经济社会活动是北方河川径流减少的主要原因。实行最严格的水资源管理,加强节水型社会建设是解决北方水资源问题的根本出路。China has been frequently hit by extreme floods and droughts due to its unique geographical features and climatic conditions.The inherently low precipitation in North China makes the conflict between water supply and demand increasingly prominent in the region.Under a changing environment,the observed runoff in northern major rivers has been declining over the last few decades.On the other hand,the rapid socio-economic development in the region has resulted in a substantial increase of water consumption.These two factors have further aggravated the water supply-demand conflict.The attribution analysis of runoff variability reveals that intensive human activities have a major influence on the reduction of runoff in northern major rivers,which include the land-use change,the industrial and agricultural developments,and other socio-economic activities.Implementing the most stringent water resources management policy and enhancing the construction of water saving society would be the fundamental way out of the water shortage problem in North China.

关 键 词：水资源 变化环境 归因分析 中国北方 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]