基于MCS的多状态复杂系统可靠性评估  

Reliability evaluation of multi-state complex systems based on MCS

作　　者：阮渊鹏[1] 何桢[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《系统工程学报》2013年第3期410-418,共9页Journal of Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(70931004);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(71225006)

摘　　要：同时考虑了部件选择性失效传播引起的共因失效以及系统的不完全保护,提出了一种面向多状态复杂系统的基于蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)的可靠性评估算法.传统方法只能解决可以转化为串、并联结构的简单系统的可靠性评估问题,而本文提出的算法打破了这种限制,使得其应用范围更加广泛.最后,通过两个示例说明了算法的有效性以及其因失效与不完全保护对系统可靠性的影响.This paper presents a multi-state complex systems oriented method of evaluating the reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation （MCS） with selective effect and imperfect protections resulted from components with propagated failures. The traditional methods have the limitation that they can only be used to solve the problems of reliability evaluation of simple systems which can be decomposed into series and parallel structures. But the proposed method overcomes the limitation and has broader applications. The two given examples illustrate the validity of the proposed algorithm and the influence of CCFs and imperfect protections over systems reliability.

关 键 词：多状态复杂系统 部件选择性失效传播 不完全保护 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]